Power Crisis In Pakistan

Power Crisis In Pakistan


Introduction
Reasons
Rise in Demand
Zero Addition to the power generation capacity
Cut in the electricity production by IPPs
Rising prices of fossil fuels
Reduced Capacity of Hydro power plants
Lack of vision and planning
Waste of Energy
Energy theft and line losses
Absence of other sources of energy
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Fffects

· Trouble for the Masses
· Closure of Industry
· Reduced Productivity
· Slow Down Of Economy
· Agriculture
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Solution

· Use of Alternative Resources for Electricity Generation
Coal
Geothermal Energy
Wind Energy
Atomic Energy
Hydropower Projects
· Encouragement of Energy Saving Attitude
· Foreign Investment In Power Sector
· Co-operation with China And Iran
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Pakistan's Electric Power Crisis Worsens
In June 2007, the power cuts in Pakistan lasted no more than 3 or 4 hours a day. Today, in extremely hot weather, Pakistanis have to endure without electricity for 8 to 10 hours a day. Industrial production is suffering, exports are down, jobs are being lost, and the national economy is in a downward spiral. By all indications, the power crisis in Pakistan is getting worse than ever. Extended Load-shedding:Extended electricity load shedding in Karachi's five major industrial estates is causing losses in billions of rupees as the production activity has fallen by about 50 per cent. KESC, Karachi's power supply utility, is dealing with with a shortfall of around 700MW against a total demand of 2200MW. Almost all forms of power generation from fossil fuel-fired thermal to hydroelectric to nuclear are down from a year ago. As a result of the daily rolling blackouts, the economy, major exports and overall employment are also down and the daily wage earners are suffering. The KESC and PEPCO owe more than Rs. 10b to the independent power producers (IPPs) and paying them will help bring them into full operation and ease the crisis at least partially.Electricity Demand:As discussed in an earlier post, Pakistan's current installed capacity is around 19,845 MW, of which around 20% is hydroelectric. Much of the rest is thermal, fueled primarily by gas and oil. Pakistan Electric Power Company PEPCO blames independent power producers (IPPs) for the electricity crisis, as they have been able to give PEPCO only 3,800 MW on average out of 5,800 MW of confirmed capacity. Most of the IPPs are running fuel stocks below the required minimum of 21 days. IPPs complain that they are not being paid on time by PEPCO.Per capita energy consumption of the country is estimated at 14 million Btu, which is about the same as India's but only a fraction of other industrializing economies in the region such as Thailand and Malaysia, according to the US Dept of Energy 2006 report. To put it in perspective, the world average per capita energy use is about 65 million BTUs and the average American consumes 352 million BTUs. With 40% of the Pakistani households that have yet to receive electricity, and only 18% of the households that have access to pipeline gas, the energy sector is expected to play a critical role in economic and social development. With this growth comes higher energy consumption and stronger pressures on the country’s energy resources. At present, natural gas and oil supply the bulk (80 percent) of Pakistan’s energy needs. However, the consumption of those energy sources vastly exceeds the supply. For instance, Pakistan currently produces only 18.3 percent of the oil it consumes, fostering a dependency on expensive, imported oil and that places considerable strain on the country’s financial position, creating growing budget deficits. On the other hand, hydro, coal, wind and solar are perhaps underutilized and underdeveloped today, as Pakistan has ample potential to exploit these resources. Gilani Government's Response:Neelum-Jhelum hydroelectric project, first formally announced by former Minister Omar Ayub on June 10, 2007, is finally starting in earnest under the PPP government of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani. This hydro project is expected to add 963MW power generating capacity at a cost US $2.2 billion, according to Business Wire. Prior to this project, the new Pakistani Prime Minister signed a deal with a Chinese company, Dong Fong, for setting up 525 MW thermal power plant with an investment of $450 million at Chichoki Mallian (Sheikhupura). Both of these projects are expected help partially close the 3000 MW gap that exists today between supply and demand in Pakistan.Renewable Energy Opportunities:In response to the warnings of energy crisis in Pakistan, President Musharraf's government recognized the need and the potential for renewable alternatives and, in 2006, created Alternative Energy Development Board to pursue renewable energy. In particular, AEDB is focusing on wind and solar as viable alternatives. AEDB is facilitating setting up of small renewable energy projects in line with government’s policy of promoting the use of renewable energy in the country’s power generation mix, says the board’s chief executive officer Mr Arif Alauddin. AEDB has recently issued Makwind Power Private Ltd (MPPL) a Letter of Intent for the setting up of 50MW wind farm at Nooriabad in Sindh, as part of its efforts to facilitate 700 MW wind energy by 2010.According to data published by Miriam Katz of Environmental Peace Review, Pakistan is fortunate to have something many other countries do not, which are high wind speeds near major centers. Near Islamabad, the wind speed is anywhere from 6.2 to 7.4 meters per second (between 13.8 and 16.5 miles per hour). Near Karachi, the range is between 6.2 and 6.9 (between 13.8 and 15.4 miles per hour). Pakistan is also fortunate that in neighboring India, the company Suzlon manufactures wind turbines, thus decreasing transportation costs. Working with Suzlon, Pakistan can begin to build its own wind-turbine industry and create thousands of new jobs while solving its energy problems. Suzlon turbines start to turn at a speed of 3 meters per second. Vestas, which is one of the world's largest wind turbine manufacturers, has wind turbines that start turning at a speed of 4 meters per second. In addition to Karachi and Islamabad, there are other areas in Pakistan that receive a significant amount of wind.In only the Balochistan and Sindh provinces, sufficient wind exists to power every coastal village in the country. There also exists a corridor between Gharo and Keti Bandar that alone could produce between 40,000 and 50,000 megawatts of electricity, says Ms. Katz who has studied and written about alternative energy potential in South Asia. Given this surplus potential, Pakistan has much to offer Asia with regards to wind energy. In recent years, the government has completed several projects to demonstrate that wind energy is viable in the country. In Mirpur Sakro, 85 micro turbines have been installed to power 356 homes. In Kund Malir, 40 turbines have been installed, which power 111 homes. The Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) has also acquired 18,000 acres for the installation of more wind turbines.In addition to high wind speeds near major centers as well as the Gharo and Keti Bandar corridor, Pakistan is also very fortunate to have many rivers and lakes. Wind turbines that are situated in or near water enjoy an uninterrupted flow of wind, which virtually guarantees that power will be available all the time. Within towns and cities, wind speeds can often change quickly due to the presence of buildings and other structures, which can damage wind turbines. In addition, many people do not wish for turbines to be sited near cities because of noise, though these problems are often exaggerated. Wind turbines make less noise than an office and people comfortably carry on conversations while standing near them.As is painfully evident in summers, Pakistan is an exceptionally sunny country. If 0.25% of Balochistan was covered with solar panels with an efficiency of 20%, enough electricity would be generated to cover all of Pakistani demand. In all provinces the AEDB has created 100 solar homes in order to exploit solar energy.Solar energy makes much sense for Pakistan for several reasons: firstly, 70% of the population lives in 50,000 villages that are very far away from the national grid, according to a report by the Solar Energy Research Center (SERC). Connecting these villages to the national grid would be very costly, thus giving each house a solar panel would be cost efficient and would empower people both economically and socially.Coal Power and HydroelectricityIn addition to high winds and abundant solar potential, Pakistan has the fifth largest coal deposits in the world. The negative environmental effects of coal burning can be be mitigated by making use of the latest clean coal technologies that limit noxious gas exhaust into the atmosphere. Pakistan also has some deposits of natural gas in the Potwar Plateau region and near the border between Balochistan and Sindh, but these are likely to disappear within 20 years.Because of the presence of many rivers and lakes, it makes sense for Pakistan to build dams to support water management and electricity generation projects. However, it must be done with care to avoid damage to the environment or loss of farmland. Financial and Policy IncentivesDespite the fact that Pakistan is so well endowed with wind and solar potential, only a few projects such as those mentioned above have been completed. One of the reasons why this has occurred is that Pakistan does not have major financial incentives available for those who want to install wind turbines or solar panels. Let us look at the case of India, Pakistan's neighbor. Despite having less potential for wind, India now has the world's fourth largest number of wind turbines installed at 7,093 MW, according to India: Renewable Energy Market report. Ahead of India are Germany at 21,283 MW, Spain at 13,400 MW and the US at 12,934 MW. In Germany, Spain and India, those who install wind turbines and solar panels are guaranteed a certain rate per kilowatt hour. In India, this varies according to the technology and the area. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, India reports that in most areas, between 2500 and 4800 rupees are guaranteed for solar panels, and for wind turbines, between 250,000 and 300,000 rupees are awarded.Because of the above incentives, the cost of wind in India is between 2 and 2.5 cents per kilowatt hour while in Pakistan, the cost is 7 cents. In December 2006, President Musharraf announced a national renewable energy policy. This policy means that small projects do not need approval and that any person can put up their own project. However, there are no financial incentives for doing so. At the moment, all renewable energy equipment has no sales or income tax and is free of custom duty, but these incentives are not enough to stimulate major growth in the renewable energy market where ROIs and other financial ratios have a long gestation or breakeven period. In certain situations, such as the textiles and other Karachi industrial units losing production and export opportunities due to power cuts, it may make sense for the owners to join hands and build power generation capacity they can rely on. ConclusionIn addition to coal and hydro electricity generation, Miriam Katz argues that it is clear that Pakistan is a suitable country for the installation of wind and solar: due to high winds near cities; the presence of rivers and lakes as well as the availability of wind turbines from nearby India. There are also other reasons for installing renewable energy. It is quite normal for extended power outages to happen on a daily basis in the country, but this cannot continue if the Pakistani economy is to grow. In March 2007, President Musharraf stated that renewable energy should be part of the push to increase energy supplies by 10 to 12 percent every year. The government also set a target of 10 percent of energy to come from renewables by 2015. If the new PPP-led government follows through with aggressive renewable energy push, Pakistan could be an Asian leader in renewable energy given its natural resources of wind and solar as its strategic endowments.


Power crisis to deepen in coming years: 50pc demand rise in two years likelyISLAMABAD, Jan 7: The government is anticipating the energy crisis to worsen in the next two years due to a 50 per cent increase in the demand and a rather slow improvement in the supply, it is learnt.The power shortage that has been estimated to remain in the range of 1000-2000MW during the current year is likely to cross 3,000MW next year and to increase to about 5,300MW by 2010. Overall, Pakistan’s total energy requirement is expected to be around 80 million tons of oil equivalents (MTOE) in 2010, up by about 50 per cent from the current year’s 54 MTOE.“Since four out of five major initiatives, originally planned for meeting this demand, are uncertain at present, the shortage could be anybody’s guess,” said a senior government official.The federal government has decided to convene two back-to-back meetings on Tuesday to take stock of the situation. Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz will preside over a meeting of all stakeholders, including officials from the Planning Commission, ministries of water and power, petroleum and finance and power and gas utilities, and oil and gas producers and suppliers to examine repercussions and possible solutions.Ahead of that meeting, Minister for Water and Power Liaquat Ali Jatoi will chair a meeting of oil and gas utilities to see how soon these shortages could be minimised and power plants on maintenance be brought on line.An official, who is part of the team preparing for the prime minister’s meeting told Dawn that the energy shortage was severe and widespread in almost all areas, while different sectors contributed to each other’s problems. “Natural gas, power, and oil shortages were all posing risks to the economic growth in medium to long term period,” he said.Adviser on Water and Power Riaz A. Khan said the situation was complex. He said the development of water resources would resolve the problem in the long run but in the short term there was a limit to constructing costly thermal power projects given their high economic costs.He said the independent power projects currently under construction would not begin productions before 2009. The Orient Power Project, the Halmore, the Saif, the Sapphire and Water and Power Development Authority’s (Wadpa) new plants would be commercially operational in March 2009, he said.A major shortfall is expected in natural gas supplies, another official said. According to an official energy demand forecast, the demand for natural gas, having about 50 per cent share in the country’s energy consumption, would increase by 44 per cent to 39MTOE from 27MTOE currently.The government has planned to add an overall power generation capacity of about 7,880MW by 2010. Of this, about 4,860MW is to be based on natural gas, accounting for 61 per cent of the capacity expansion. However, the gas-based power expansion of about 4,860MW would remain in doubt since these estimates are based on three gas import options for completion in 2010, 2015 and 2020.This means that the major part of about 4,860 gas-based plants would not be available and the difference would be met through other costly options. "Even if the physical work is started today, it will take at least seven years to complete a pipeline project", said a senior petroleum ministry official. He has no answer as to when a pipeline project could be taken in hand from now on. The fifth initiative of the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) import is expected to remain on schedule and start delivering about 0.3 billion cubic feet of gas (BCFD) by 2009 and another 0.5 BCFD by 2015.Partly contributed by gas shortfalls, the power shortage is expected to be little over 5,250MW by 2010, said a Planning Commission official, adding that the oil demand would also increase by over 23 per cent to about 21 million tons in 2010 from the current 16.8 million tons. This would leave a total deficit of about nine million tons of diesel and furnace oil imports, he said. Since gas shortfalls were expected to be much higher, the country would need to enhance its dependence on imported oil, increasing pressure on foreign exchange situation, he added.The government had planned five major initiatives to meet these energy requirements under the Energy Security Plan. These include three gas import pipelines, the Gwadar port as energy hub and the LNG import. However, four of these measures, including the three import pipeline projects, show no signs of progress for various reasons, while concentration on energy facilities in Gwadar would chiefly depend on security situation, besides oil and gas import pipelines.Pakistan's gas reserves are 32.8 TCF at present with reserve-production ration in the order of 27 years - domestic production is not expected to grow substantially. The power sector demand represents 41 per cent of total gas consumption; general industries 24 per cent; fertiliser 7.8 per cent; domestic/commercial 22.8 per cent; and cement and the Condensed Natural Gas (CNG) 1.5 per cent and 2.8 per cent, respectively.The demand growth has been up to 8.5 per cent in recent years and is expected to grow by about seven per cent with power industries and domestic accounting for 82 per cent. Gas demand already displays seasonal patterns with the national demand growing in winter beyond transmission capacity and large users mainly industries, power plants and cement are curtailed during winter months to ensure supplies to domestic, commercial and small industries or fertiliser. The annual production at present is about 1.16 TCF."The present government could not initiate any major project in the last seven years to meet future energy demand", said former secretary petroleum Dr Gulfraz Ahmad. The projects that were launched in the 1990s met the demand growth in the last few years, he said.Former petroleum minister Usman Aminuddin said that Pakistan was currently in the midst of a severe energy crisis and development and gasification of Thar coal seemed the only hope in future.According to the World Bank estimates, a gap (supply shortage) of about four per cent of the total demand was expected in 2010. Even though this would be met by the LNG imports, it would again increase to 20 per cent of the total demand. The Bank said that the indigenous gas supply would fall from 32.6 MTOE in 2010 to 20.7 MTOE in 2025, while the ‘gas supply-demand gap’ would rapidly increase as demand was expected to grow continuously, quadrupling in 2025. It said that the gas imports will represent almost 67 per cent of natural gas supply in 2025. One can, therefore, gauge the quantum of shortage in case import pipelines are not materialised.
Islamabad - Pakistan's electricity production was nearly 3,000 megawatts short of demand in March. The country made up the difference by turning off lights, and everything else, for several hours a day.
Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani after being sworn in March 25 put the 'energy crisis' up with terrorism as a top issue to address during his first 100 days in office. Sponsored Links:
But things will get worse before they get better, Gillani warned, with power outages increasing through June when air conditioners are turned on to beat the heat.
Pakistan is experiencing these shortages despite its miserly electricity use with per-capita consumption of 546 kilowatt hours per year, a fifth of the global average of 2,586 kilowatt hours, according to statistics from the seven-nation South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation.
The problem stems from the fact that Pakistan has failed to build new power plants to keep up with the demand for electricity.
As a result, the poor who are connected to the grid are going without during the nearly four hours of outages that are occurring per day this month. In wealthier neighbourhoods, however, the streets come alive with the sounds of generators.
The power outages have increased generator sales - and their price tags - but have also cooled sales of fans, air conditioners and other appliances with consumers asking why have such devices without the electricity to run them.
A graver concern for the economy is the outages' effects on the industrial sector, which is Pakistan's biggest consumer of electricity, and factories having to shut down during the outages. Police have also reported increased crime during the blackouts in bigger cities. Sponsored Links:
The blackouts have shed light on many problems, but just as many solutions are on offer.
Of Pakistan's 19,500 megawatts of production capacity, a little more than 60 per cent is from imported oil and domestic natural gas power plants. Hydropower generated from the country's two major dams accounts for about 30 per cent, and its one nuclear power plant produces less than 5 per cent.
Coal plant production is even less, but that could change if Pakistan exploits what has been estimated as the world's third-largest known coal reserves in the south-eastern part of the country.
'The answer lies in using local coal,' Tahir Basharat Cheema with DG Energy Management said in a recent televised debate about the energy crisis.
Cheema suggested the government's Water and Power Development Authority develop coal generation, adding Pakistan cannot 'solely depend on the private sector, [which] wants everything developed' for them.
More nuclear plants and dams are other options often put forward while others tout solar and wind power.
Ejaz Ahmad, deputy director of the Pakistani branch of the World Wide Fund For Nature, or WWF, said a big part of the answer is blowing in the wind. 'It is practical for cost reasons as well as environmental,' he told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa.
With power needed immediately, wind farms look good because they are relatively fast to install whereas dams and nuclear power plants take five to six years to complete and thermal power plants a couple of years at least, he said. Sponsored Links:
The WWF erected three 500-watt windmills in a rural area of the south-western province of Sindh. Each windmill cost about 1,000 dollars, including installation, and provides electricity to homes that never had it before.
'It's a small project to show wind works,' Amad said.
Real small - the country would need at least 6 million more of those windmills to meet the electricity shortfalls it is experiencing in early April.
The windmills are in the region of Pakistan's coal reserves, which Amad warned would be a political as well as environmental disaster if they are mined.
'The winds blow to India, so the pollution would blow into India, and that would cause political problems,' he said. Harvest that wind instead, he suggested.
Professor Irfan Younas with the Institute of Information Technology in Rawalpindi agreed wind should play a big part of solving Pakistan's energy shortages, adding that comprehensive wind maps have already been researched in the country.
'Karachi's energy problem could be answered with wind energy,' he said of Pakistan's biggest city of about 15 million people on the southern coast, where there are consistent breezes all year.
Cost-effectiveness attracted Younas to both wind and solar energy, he said, but added that in the long-term, Pakistan should also build more nuclear plants and dams.
'There is money to be made, no doubt about it,' he said. 'We need people to come and invest in independent power producers here.'
'We are at the point that people really need to act,' he said.
How to survive the energy crisis in Pakistan
THE loadshedding-driven sleepless nights and disrupted daily routines of last summer are still haunting the people as the weather turns hot. The situation has not improved since last year; indeed all the signs are that it is getting worse.Credit goes to brave Pakistanis for surviving through the winter despite 10-hour power and gas loadshedding. But in the upcoming summer when the mercury is going to consistently hover round 40°C, occasionally rising to 50°C in some places, a power crisis of a similar order is going to prove unbearable. Last summer the national media reported tragic deaths due to heatstroke and dehydration. The energy crisis in winter forced thousands of industries to shut down operations, affecting industrial production and the livelihoods of thousands of families.
Considering the indispensability of energy — since 1947, per capita electricity dependence in Pakistan has grown 82-fold — the current state of affairs can be regarded as a ‘national crisis’. The quickest and pragmatic solution — multi-gigawatt capacity addition based on local coal and hydropower — will require at least 2-3 years (5-7 years for hydropower) provided that bold and concerted steps are taken on a war footing.
Assuming optimistically that this will happen, we still have to devise ways in the interim to meet the electricity deficit in the country which has soared to over 40 per cent. The challenge now is how to survive this summer and how to stop the crisis from getting worse. The solution lies in a collective national effort.
Two key elements of a possible solution are: categorical change in the pattern of energy consumption and change in lifestyles.
The current energy consumption trends in Pakistan are extremely inefficient, whether it be in the domestic, industrial, trade or commercial sectors. With minimal effort, well over ten per cent of national electricity can be saved by applying only the first level of energy conservation, that is a change in attitude. It is simple, instant and effective and all it requires is a stop to using energy unnecessarily.
Leaving lights and home appliances on even when they are not being used is a common practice in our society. Similarly, many businesses such as shops dealing in cloth and garments, jewellery, cosmetics, home appliances and electronics are usually extravagantly lit. It is commonly observed that shops that could do with two or three 40-watt tube lights to meet the desired level of luminance use as many as 15 to 20 tubes. Not only does this increase power consumption, it also generates heat and makes the environment uncomfortable.
A further economy of 10-15 per cent can be achieved by introducing the second level of energy-conservation practices, especially in industry. Collectively, just through conservation, more than half of the electricity deficit can be met. However to do that, public education is essential. With the help of effective electronic and print media campaigns the government can quickly educate the masses.
The second part of the solution is a change in lifestyles. It would begin with the acknowledgement that the country is facing a national disaster and every citizen has to pitch in to overcome it. The nation has to draw a clear line between necessities (lighting, fans, TVs, computers, etc) and luxuries (air conditioners, microwaves, etc). There is not enough electricity to meet both requirements.
We will have to compromise on luxurious lifestyles in order to meet the necessities. Markets and commercial places can substantially reduce their power consumption by changing their working hours. An early start and early end to capitalise on daylight as much as possible should be recommended rather than having opening hours from afternoon until late at night.Air-conditioning, usually a sign of a luxurious lifestyle, needs to be dropped. Bearing in mind that a typical domestic AC consumes far more electricity in one hour than a fan does over 24 hours, air conditioning should not be allowed except for sensitive applications such as hospitals and research centres. The choice is between using ACs for a few hours and then doing without electricity in peak summer months or avoiding ACs and other luxury gadgets but having round-the-clock electricity available to meet fundamental needs.
Any such policy should be made at the highest level and its implementation should also begin there because charity starts at home. The common man would only be convinced of the looming crisis when he sees the ruling elite practise what it preaches.
The ruling class should lead by example in matters of power conservation. If it does so the common man will follow suit. It is time for the elite to take energy-saving initiatives like abandoning the use of central air conditioning, travelling by special flights and irrelevant use of official transport.
These recommendations are neither impractical nor a step backward, as some sections may perceive them to be. If implemented they can not only avoid the collapse of a bankrupt energy infrastructure but also ensure progress. Even those who have access to easy money and can afford different gadgets such as generators to offset reduced power supply will still feel the heat one way or the other. The bottom line is, in order to safely get through the current energy crisis the nation has to differentiate between its necessities and its luxuries.
If loadshedding is still unavoidable despite all these measures, Wapda/KESC should organise the cuts in a sensible way to cause minimum discomfort. Loadshedding

Energy Crisis and Pakistan
An energy crisis is any great shortfall (or price rise) in the supply of energy resources to an economy. It usually refers to the shortage of oil and additionally to electricity or other natural resources.The crisis often has effects on the rest of the economy, with many recessions being caused by an energy crisis in some form. In particular, the production costs of electricity rise, which raises manufacturing costs.For the consumer, the price of gasoline (petrol) and diesel for cars and other vehicles rises, leading to reduced consumer confidence and spending, higher transportation costs and general price rising.Future and alternative sources of energySome experts argue that the world is heading towards a global energy crisis due to a decline in the availability of cheap oil and recommend a decreasing dependency on fossil fuel. This has led to increasing interest in alternate power/fuel research such as fuel cell technology, hydrogen fuel, biomethanol, biodiesel, Karrick process, solar energy, tidal energy and wind energy. To date, only hydroelectricity and nuclear power have been significant alternatives to fossil fuel (see Future energy development), with big ecological problems (residues and water spending). Hydrogen gas is currently produced at a net energy loss from natural gas, which is also experiencing declining production in North America and elsewhere. When not produced from natural gas, hydrogen still needs another source of energy to create it, also at a loss during the process. This has led to hydrogen being regarded as a 'carrier' of energy rather than a 'source'.There have been alarming predictions by groups such as the Club of Rome that the world would run out of oil in the late 20th century. Although technology has made oil extraction more efficient, the world is having to struggle to provide oil by using increasingly costly and less productive methods such as deep sea drilling, and developing environmentally sensitive areas such as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The world's population continues to grow at a quarter of a million people per day, increasing the consumption of energy. The per capita energy consumption of China, India and other developing nations continues to increase as the people living in these countries adopt western lifestyles. At present a small part of the world's population consumes a large part of its resources, with the United States and its population of 296 million people consuming more oil than China with its population of 1.3 billion people.Efficiency mechanisms such as Negawatt power can provide significantly increased supply. It is a term used to describe the trading of increased efficiency, using consumption efficiency to increase available market supply rather than by increasing plant generation capacity.Energy Crisis In PakistanEnergy resources have depleted! Whatever resources are available are simply too expensive to buy or already acquired by countries which had planned and acted long time ago. Delayed efforts in the exploration sector have not been able to find sufficient amounts of energy resources. Nations of the world which have their own reserves are not supplying energy resources anymore; only the old contracts made decades ago are active. Airplanes, trains, cars, motorbikes, buses and trucks, all modes of transportation are coming to a stand still. Many industries have closed due to insufficient power supply. Price of oil has gone above the ceiling. At domestic level, alternate methods like solar, biogas and other methods are being tried for mere survival. The above is a likely scenario of Pakistan and around the globe after 25 years. A pessimistic view, but realistic enough to think about and plan for the future. But are we doing anything about it? Lets have a look at the current energy situation of Pakistan and the world. Pakistan’s economy is performing at a very high note with GDP growing at an exceptional rate, touching 8.35% in 2004-05.In its history of 58 years, there has been only a few golden years where the economy grew above 7%. This year official expectations are that GDP growth rate will be around 6.5 – 7.0%. For the coming years, the government is targeting GDP growth rate above 6%. With economy growing at such a pace, the energy requirements are likely to increase with a similar rate. For 2004-05, Pakistan’s energy consumption touched 55.5 MTOE (Million Tons of Oil Equivalent). The energy consumption is expected to grow at double digit if the overall economy sustains the targeted GDP growth rate of 6% by the government. Pakistan’s energy requirements are expected to double in the next few years, and our energy requirements by 2015 is likely to cross 120MTOE. By 2030, the nation’s requirement will be 7 times the current requirement reaching 361MTOE. Pakistan’s energy requirements are fulfilled with more than 80% of energy resources through imports. On the other hand, international oil prices have not only broken all records but are touching new highs, with every news directly or indirectly affecting the black gold industry. Moreover, speculators all around the world expect oil prices to touch $100 per barrel in medium term. With concerns over Iran’s nuclear program, terrorist issues in Nigeria and high economic growth in China & India and their ever rising energy requirements, oil prices don’t see any another way but to shoot upwards. What is the government doing to ensure a sustainable supply of energy resources for economic growth? What strategic steps are being taken to acquire energy resources in future? Is private sector willing to invest in Pakistan’s oil industry? What are the incentives being offered to the foreign players to continue working in the exploration sector? What hurdles are stopping other big players around the world to enter Pakistan? What is the role of gas distribution companies so far? Are the citizens of Pakistan being robbed by energy giants with ever rising utility bills? What should be the real price of petroleum, kerosene and other oil products in Pakistan? When will the nation have “load shedding free” electric supply? Have we been able to make long term contracts with the countries to provide uninterrupted supply of energy resources? Will the government be able to provide enough sources to the citizens for a sustainable economic growth? Have we lost the race for acquiring maximum energy resources for future survival? Pakistan: Power crisis feared by 2007The country may plunge into energy crisis by the year 2007 due to rising electricity demand which enters into double digit figure following increasing sale of electrical and electronic appliances on lease finance, it is reliably learnt Thursday.“The country may face energy crisis by the year 2007 following healthy growth of 13 per cent in electricity demand during the last quarter, which will erode surplus production in absence of commissioning of any new power generation project during this financial year,” informed sources told The Nation.As per Pakistan Economic Survey 2003-04, electricity consumption has increased by 8.6 per cent during first three-quarter of last fiscal year. However, a top level WAPDA official maintained that electricity demand surged up to 13 per cent during last quarter.The survey said household sector has been the largest consumer of electricity accounting for 44.2 per cent of total electricity consumption followed by industries 31.1 per cent, agriculture 14.3 per cent, other government sector 7.4 per cent, commercial 5.5 per cent and street light 0.7 per cent.Keeping in view the past trend and the future development, WAPDA has also revised its load forecast to eight per cent per annum as against previous estimates of five per cent on average. Even the revised load forecast has also failed all assessments due to which Authority has left no other option but to start load management this year, which may convert into scheduled loadshedding over a period of two year, sources maintained.The country needs a quantum jump in electricity generation in medium-term scenario to revert the possibilities of loadshedding in future due to shrinking gap between demand and supply of electricity at peak hours.According to an official report, the gap between firm supply and peak hours demand has already been shrunk to three digit (440 MW) during this fiscal and will slip into negative columns next year (-441 MW) and further intensify to (-1,457 MW) during the financial year 2006-07.The report maintained that the difference between firm supply and peak demand is estimated at 5,529 MW by the year 2009-10 when firm electricity supply will stand at 15,055 MW against peak demand of 20,584 MW.Chairman WAPDA Tariq Hamid at a Press conference early this year warned about the possible energy crisis and stressed the need for ‘quantum jump’ in power generation. The experts say it could only be possible through a mega project of hydropower generation, otherwise the gap between firm supply and peak demand will remain on the rise.They said the power generation projects, which are due to commission in coming years are of low capacity and will not be able to exceed the surging demand of the electricity.They say no power generation project will commission during this fiscal year and the total installed capacity of electricity generation will remain 19,478 MW to meet 15,082 MW firm supply and 14,642 MW peak demand.Giving details of projects, the sources said Malakand-lll (81MW), Pehur (18MW) and combined cycle power plant at Faisalabad (450MW) are planned to be commissioned during the year 2007. Mangla Dam raising project would also add 150 MW capacity to the national grid by June 2007. Besides this, Khan Khwar (72MW), Allai Khwar (121MW), Duber Khwar (130MW) and Kayal Khwar (130MW) are expected to be completed in 2008 along with Golan Gol (106MW) and Jinnah (96MW). Moreover, Matiltan (84MW), New Bong Escape (79MW) and Rajdhani (132MW) are expected by 2009 while Taunsa (120MW) is likely to be completed by 2010.Sources say WAPDA has also planned to install a high efficiency combined cycle power plant at Baloki (450MW), which is expected to be completed by 2010. In addition of these, power plant 1 & 2 of 300 MW each at Thar Coal with the assistance of China are also planned for commissioning in 2009, sources said. Moreover, efforts are also under way with China National Nuclear Corporation for the construction of a third nuclear power plant with a gross capacity of 325 MW at Chashma, they added.When contacted, a WAPDA official said there is no power shortage in the country at present as the Authority still has over 1,000 MW surplus electricity. However, he admitted that the shortage may occur in the year 2007 and onward and said the Authority will utilise all options including running of IPPs plant at full capacity to avert any possible crisis.About the system augmentation to bring down line losses, the official said the Authority would spend Rs 3.5 billion on augmentation of distribution lines this fiscal while another Rs 5 billion will be consumed on transmission lines. “We have been negotiating Rs 9 billion loan with a consortium of local banks to upgrade and augment the power transmission system,” he disclosed. The official further said that five new transmission lines of 220-KV would be installed by the end of 2004, that would ensure smooth supply to the consumers. He expressed full trust on present transmission and distribution system and said it could easily sustain the load of total installed power generation in the country


Power vision in Pakistan
WATER and power are no more synonymous. However, Wapda makes us believe that water and power are inseparable and that the present energy crisis in the country is because we have failed to build large dams. Wapda and the proponents of big dams use this argument in favour of building Kalabagh and other large dams.We need to look at the larger picture and think out of the box. Pakistan produces about 19,500 MW of electric power; Wapda provides about 11,363 MW, or 58 per cent of this. The remaining power is supplied by the KESC, nuclear and IPPs. There is currently loadshedding of up to 700 MW a day because of shortage and poor transmission capabilities. Electricity demand is expected to grow by eight per cent a year during the period 2005 — 2015, requiring an annual installation capacity of about 2000 MW for the next 10 years.The worldwide electricity production, as per the World Bank, is as follows: coal: 40 per cent; gas 19 per cent; nuclear 16 per cent; hydro 16 per cent; oil seven per cent. Pakistan’s power production is gas 48 per cent; hydro 33 per cent; oil 16 per cent; nuclear two per cent, and coal 0.2 per cent.There has been a global trend to shift away from oil because of its rising price expected to reach $100 a barrel by the end of this year depending on the international geopolitical situation. Despite the lowest cost of hydroelectric power, there have been environmental, ecological and geopolitical concerns over the building of large dams.The supply of natural gas in Pakistan has been depleting over the years, and the country is now looking at the option of importing gas from Qatar and Central Asia. This leaves the possibility of exploring nuclear, coal and other alternative energy sources.Nuclear energy and coal form the lowest source of power production in Pakistan. On the other hand, the world average for nuclear energy is 16 per cent and for coal 40 per cent.Let us first consider these two potential sources of electric power production for Pakistan. The US obtains 20 per cent of its electric power from nuclear energy with 104 reactors; France 78 per cent with 59 reactors, Japan 24 per cent with 54 reactors, the UK 23 per cent with 31 reactors, and so on. Even India has signed a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement with the United States to develop its nuclear capability for power generation and economic development. It has currently six reactors in operation with a capacity of 3750 MW, and another six with a capacity of 3,340 MW are under construction and should be completed by 2007.The new agreement will further boost the nuclear power generating capacity of India. Today, nuclear power plants have average capacities of 600 — 1,000 MW.Pakistan only produces two per cent of its power through two reactors (Karachi and Chashma at 137 MW and 300 MW respectively). Pakistan is a nuclear technologically advanced country with capabilities to produce fuel, yet falls behind most other countries, including India, in terms of nuclear power production.Regarding coal power generation, the US produces 51 per cent of its power using coal, Poland 96 per cent, South Africa 94 per cent, India 68 per cent, Australia 77 per cent, China 79 per cent, Israel 77 per cent, UK 35 per cent, Japan 28 per cent, while Pakistan produces only 0.2 per cent of its power through coal.Pakistan has the world’s seventh largest reserves of coal, after the recent discoveries in Thar. The total coal reserve in Pakistan is about 175 billion tons.The current coal production is only 3.5 million tons per year, which is mostly used for the brick and cement industry. Coal has typical problems, such as a high sulphur content (it produces sulphur dioxide, the source of acid rain), mineral matter content (leading to ash and pollution problems), carbon dioxide emission (contributing to global warming) and high moisture content.However, technologies are available to minimise all of these. Conversion technologies are currently under development to convert coal into environmentally-friendly methanol and hydrogen gas to be used as clean fuel. The US is working on a major initiative called future gen to produce “zero emission” power plants of the future.There is large-scale application of coal for power generation around the world. The largest coal-fired plant in the world today is at Nanticoke, Canada, with a capacity of 3900 MW. In the US, which is the largest consumer of coal-generated power the power plant at Coal Creek has a capacity of 1,100 MW. Coal-fired power plants of 500 MW are the norm today and many are currently under construction around the world. In Pakistan, there are plans to build only two 300 MW coal-fired plants at Thar.In addition to the option of using nuclear plants and coal for power production, alternative energy sources are also available, including wind and solar. Wind energy is the fastest growing energy source in the world. It grew at an astonishing 43 per cent in the last one year alone. Total installed capacity worldwide is 60,000 MW. Technologies have greatly improved in the last two decades, making wind energy very feasible as compared to other sources of power. In the 1980s, the cost of wind energy production was 40 c/kwh; today it is only four c/kwh (Rs 2.40 per unit as compared to Rs. 4.00 for fossil fuel) and therefore it is growing very rapidly. Ecological issues continue to be addressed for large wind farms.The world’s two largest growing economies — China and India — are capitalising on wind capability. By 2010, China will set up plants of over 5,000 MW of wind power. India last year alone set up 1,430 MW of wind power plants and is expected to add another 5,000 MW by 2012. The world’s largest producers of wind energy today are Germany at 18,440 MW (equal to Pakistan’s total power output), Spain 10,000 MW, the US 9,150 MW and India 4,430 MW (at number four). The Indian government is envisaging a capacity addition of 5,000 MW of wind power by 2012 by extending major financial incentives to the wind energy sector.Denmark is obtaining 15 per cent of its electric power needs from windmills and it is expected to grow to 50 per cent by 2012; Britain, France, Ireland and Canada are countries which are rapidly expanding their wind energy potential. Large-scale wind farms today include a 300 MW plant in Oregon-Washington, while an under-construction 520 MW capacity in Ireland will be the world’s largest. China has announced that it plans to build a 1000 MW wind farm in Hebi by 2012.Smaller windmills are also very feasible for remote villages, and in desert, mountainous and coastal regions, cutting down on the cost of power transmission and distribution networks. In remote farmlands, they have been successfully used for decades in the United States and Europe.In Pakistan, smaller windmills are now visible, such as the ones at Gharo, where SZABIST set up an experimental research station many years ago. The Sindh government has recently announced plans to build a 50 MW wind farm in the vicinity in the coastal region at Gharo.Solar power (photovoltaic or thermal) is another alternative energy source option that is generally considered feasible for tropical and equatorial countries. Even though the accepted standard is 1,000 W/m2 of peak power at sea level, an average solar panel (or photovoltaic — PV — panel), delivers an average of only 19-56W/m2. Solar plants are generally used in cases where smaller amounts of power are required at remote locations. PV is also the most expensive of all options making it less attractive.However, costs have halved in the last five years because of better production technology and growing demand. A typical solar power plant today will pay for itself in five to 10 years.Japan is the leader in solar PV power plants with over 1,200 MW of installed capacity, followed by Germany (794 MW), the US (365 MW) and India (86 MW). Typical solar (PV) power generating stations are in the 300 — 600 KW capacity. The world’s largest PV solar power plants are in Germany and Portugal with a capacity of 10 MW and spread over 62 acres. In 2005, Israel announced the building of a 100 MW solar power plant.Thermal-based solar power plants using reflectors are also in use today, the largest of these in California with a capacity of 350 MW. These are, however, not very popular, like other types of solar power options.It is, therefore, very clear from the above that Pakistan needs to aggressively pursue ways to increase its power-generating capacity. The best options available today are nuclear and coal, followed by wind and solar. Hydroelectricity can only be pursued after all environmental, ecological and geopolitical issues are settled with a consensus among all four provinces.Pakistan needs to set up at least a dozen nuclear power plants, large coal fired plants, wind farms and solar plants in the next 10 years to generate about 20,000 MW of electricity. We need to invest at least a billion dollars a year in developing the infrastructure and establishing power plants using nuclear, coal, wind and solar technology. We need to cut back on non-development expenditures by at least one billion dollars a year to invest in energy needs.Industrialisation around the world has taken place because of the abundance of reliable and cheap electrical power (infrastructure, human resource and government incentives follow). Reliable and cheap availability of electric power in Pakistan will lead to large-scale investment in industry, creation of jobs, elimination of unemployment and poverty, greater manufacturing and exports, trade surplus and the reduction of deficits. It will lead to a prosperous Pakistan.